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POLY Tyler: Braden Shick vs Aidan Mayo $12,441 KALSHI Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? $575 MANIFOLD test αΉ€2,588 SX πŸ†• Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles LMTLS πŸ†• ETH Up or Down - Hourly MYRIAD Will Base TGE in 2026? $21 BETFAIR Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2022) Federal $430,497 FANTASYSCOTUS In Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections and Public Safety, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision FORETOLD If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? POLY Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 $25,092 KALSHI Which banks will take OpenAI public? $599 MANIFOLD Steve Hilton And Spencer Pratt conditional Market αΉ€1,461 SX πŸ†• Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers LMTLS πŸ†• Gold (PAXG) Up or Down - Hourly MYRIAD Altseason before July? $3 BETFAIR Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election? $224,796 FANTASYSCOTUS In FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision FORETOLD Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D (ALLFED's estimate) POLY Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 $13,367 KALSHI Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? $1,009 MANIFOLD Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development) αΉ€1,053 SX πŸ†• San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings LMTLS πŸ†• XRP Up or Down - Hourly MYRIAD World Cup 2026: Who will perform better? $10 BETFAIR Which candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $217,859 FANTASYSCOTUS In Hamm v. Smith, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision FORETOLD When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-compet POLY Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 $11,775 KALSHI Which banks will take Anthropic public? $1,703 MANIFOLD Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V3] αΉ€17,572 SX πŸ†• Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots LMTLS πŸ†• BTC Up or Down - Hourly MYRIAD ETH flipped on CMC Historicals in 2026? $21 BETFAIR Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Keir Starmer? $114,939 FANTASYSCOTUS In Little v. Hecox, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision FORETOLD How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the
LATEST WHALES
MANIFOLD αΉ€3,695 YES market @ 99% Β· by xjp MANIFOLD αΉ€3,500 YES market @ 98% Β· by xjp POLY $50,000 BUY No US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? @ 97% Β· by EddyAncogld MANIFOLD αΉ€13,285 YES In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? @ 33% Β· by Bayesian MANIFOLD αΉ€15,000 NO market @ 14% Β· by Eliza MANIFOLD αΉ€2,638 YES [ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027? @ 29% Β· by Bayesian MANIFOLD αΉ€2,000 NO Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date? @ 2% Β· by consnop POLY $3,996 BUY Yes Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4? @ 100% Β· by 67BrainRot POLY $3,920 BUY No Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election @ 98% Β· by ArmageddonRewardsBilly POLY $4,995 BUY No Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4? @ 100% Β· by Sona-billa POLY $5,095 BUY No Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? @ 100% Β· by 0x6b3c…13f5 MANIFOLD αΉ€8,000 YES South Carolina Senate Nominee? (Polymarket) @ 98% Β· by SemioticRivalry MANIFOLD αΉ€4,000 NO Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026? @ 1% Β· by 100Anonymous MANIFOLD αΉ€2,000 NO Other 2026 French Open - Women’s singles winner? @ 2% Β· by im MANIFOLD αΉ€2,057 NO πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Coco Gauff 2026 French Open - Women’s singles winner? @ 0% Β· by polymathematic POLY $8,914 BUY No Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? @ 89% Β· by su281 POLY $13,797 BUY Spurs Spread: Spurs (-4.5) @ 51% Β· by mooseborzoi POLY $7,293 BUY NRG Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 @ 51% Β· by AmaHnk POLY $4,054 BUY Bilibili Gaming LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs @ 94% Β· by poomypants POLY $9,570 BUY No Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? @ 96% Β· by 0xf705…3ca7
πŸ† JACKPOTS

πŸ”₯ Hot Underdogs

Γ—2.0 vol multiplier
+$93,103 new money
Polymarket
Knicks vs. Spurs
πŸ’§
$9.5M
liquidity
↑ O/U 217.5 48%
β˜… Spread -2.5 58%
Before $92,122 Now $185,225 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
48%
58%
Γ—2.5 vol multiplier
+$10,543 new money
Polymarket
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
πŸ’§
$362.8k
liquidity
↑ O/U 6.5 12%
β˜… Spread -1.5 37%
Before $7,213 Now $17,756 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
12%
37%
Γ—8.1 vol multiplier
+$10,537 new money
Polymarket
World Cup Group B Winner
πŸ’§
$239.7k
liquidity
↑ Canada 30%
β˜… Switzerland 56%
Before $1,486 Now $12,022
30%
56%
Γ—3.2 vol multiplier
+$5,068 new money
Kalshi
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
πŸ’§
β€”
liquidity
↑ Cuba 6%
β˜… Greenland 8%
Before $2,294 Now $7,361 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
6%
8%
Γ—3.4 vol multiplier
+$5,025 new money
Polymarket
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds
πŸ’§
$202.5k
liquidity
↑ O/U 9.5 30%
β˜… O/U 5.5 75%
Before $2,067 Now $7,092
30%
75%
Γ—2.6 vol multiplier
+$2,595 new money
Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
πŸ’§
β€”
liquidity
↑ Gavin Newsom 14%
β˜… Marco Rubio 18%
Before $1,593 Now $4,187
14%
18%
Γ—3.2 vol multiplier
+$2,009 new money
Polymarket
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?
πŸ’§
$26.3k
liquidity
↑ 26Β°C 20%
β˜… 27Β°C 76%
Before $903 Now $2,912 πŸ‡­πŸ‡°
20%
76%
Γ—3.5 vol multiplier
+$1,902 new money
Manifold
Who will come first place in the California Governor Primary?
πŸ’§
$1.0k
liquidity
↑ Steve Hilton 3%
β˜… Xavier Becerra 97%
Before $746 Now $2,648
3%
97%

πŸ† Federated Board β€” top 60 events Β· click any row to open

  1. 1 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? 54 usd159.3M >7d
  2. 2 πŸ”₯ San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies 53 usd1.3M <7d
  3. 3 πŸ” Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 47 usd1.7M >7d
  4. 4 πŸ” Next French Presidential Election 46 usd2.4M >7d
  5. 5 πŸ” 2026 French Open - Men’s singles winner? 40 mana15.2k <7d
  6. 6 California Governor Election Winner 38 usd1.9M >7d
  7. 7 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner 35 usd5.0M ended
  8. 8 πŸ”₯ Knicks vs. Spurs 35 usd6.4M ended
  9. 9 πŸ” Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election? 34 usd224.8k
  10. 10 πŸ” Which candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 34 usd217.9k
  11. 11 World Cup Winner 34 usd49.5M >7d
  12. 12 US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? 34 usd3.9M >7d
  13. 13 πŸ” Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Keir Starmer? 33 usd114.9k
  14. 14 What price will Bitcoin hit in June? 33 usd1.6M >7d
  15. 15 2026 NBA Champion 32 usd1.3M >7d
  16. 16 Fed Decision in June? 31 usd1.6M >7d
  17. 17 πŸ” Which Party's candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 30 usd17.4k
  18. 18 πŸ” Keir Starmer out before July? 30 usd300 >7d
  19. 19 Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V3] 29 mana17.6k <24h
  20. 20 Daegu Mayoral Election Winner 27 usd1.4M ended
  21. 21 Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi? 27 mana56.2k >7d
  22. 22 Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029? 27 mana54.2k >7d
  23. 23 Who will win the 2026 Norway Chess Tournament? 27 mana27.4k <24h
  24. 24 Peru Presidential Election Winner 27 usd1.3M ended
  25. 25 πŸ”₯ Who will come first place in the California Governor Primary? 25 mana27.0k <7d
  26. 26 In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? 24 mana20.8k >7d
  27. 27 US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market 24 mana39.2k >7d
  28. 28 Which team will score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 24 mana30.2k >7d
  29. 29 Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom? 23 mana28.9k >7d
  30. 30 Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? 22 usd1.3M >7d
  31. 31 Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? 22 mana20.4k >7d
  32. 32 2026 French Open - Women’s singles winner? 22 mana17.0k >7d
  33. 33 Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup 22 mana14.2k >7d
  34. 34 Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026? 21 mana14.4k >7d
  35. 35 Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia? 21 mana14.3k >7d
  36. 36 Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2022) Federal Election? 21 usd430.5k
  37. 37 Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer? 18 usd113.9k
  38. 38 Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? 18 usd110.4k >7d
  39. 39 When will Keir Starmer be permanently replaced as Labour Party leader? 17 usd56.1k
  40. 40 BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? 17 usd743 >7d
  41. 41 New Solana ATH before July? 16 usd601 >7d
  42. 42 BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? 16 usd576 >7d
  43. 43 What will be they type of government formed as a result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election? 16 usd29.2k
  44. 44 New BTC ATH before July? 16 usd562 >7d
  45. 45 Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55? 16 usd534 >7d
  46. 46 Will NFTs make a comeback before July? 16 usd400 >7d
  47. 47 Will the FED cut rates by more than 25 bps before July? 16 usd400 >7d
  48. 48 Will President Trump be impeached during his term? 16 usd22.9k >7d
  49. 49 Makerfield by-election winner? 16 usd19.4k >7d
  50. 50 Russell Wilson: Retirement 15 usd17.4k >7d
  51. 51 New Jeans comeback before July? 15 usd400 >7d
  52. 52 Ethereum next move: Pump to $3K or Dump to $1.5K? 15 usd317 >7d
  53. 53 Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? 15 usd15.8k >7d
  54. 54 Will the Iranian Regime fall before October? 15 usd305 >7d
  55. 55 Will Trump capture another president before his birthday? 15 usd301 >7d
  56. 56 Will there be a Majority Government formed as a result of the next Australian Federal Election? 15 usd14.5k
  57. 57 Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028? 15 usd14.0k >7d
  58. 58 Will NFTs make a comeback before July? 15 usd269 >7d
  59. 59 What sector will OpenAI be assigned to in the S&P 500? 15 usd12.6k >7d
  60. 60 What sector will Anthropic be assigned to in the S&P 500? 15 usd11.5k >7d

🌐 Marketplace Activity ~6h trading volume across all tracked prediction markets as of 00:02 UTC

# Marketplace ~6h volume 1h Ξ” 6h Ξ” 24h Ξ”
1 Polymarket $70,130,997 β€” +1988.8% +27.2%
2 Kalshi $660,491 β€” +6.6% +28.9%
3 Betfair $310,303 β€” +0.0% +0.0%
4 Myriad $2,243 β€” -13.2% -77.5%
5 Manifold αΉ€185,935 β‰ˆ $1,859 β€” -8.9% +23.2%
6 Gemini Titan β€” β€” β€” β€”
7 Foretold πŸ‘₯ 237forecasts β€” 0.0pp 0.0pp
8 sx.bet β€” β€” 0.0pp 0.1pp
9 FantasySCOTUS πŸ‘₯ 898forecasts β€” 0.0pp 0.0pp
10 Limitless β€” β€” β€” β€”
11 Hyperliquid β€” β€” β€” β€”
Daily volume β€” last 7 days (stacked by marketplace)

πŸ“° Latest News Data powered by Guardian Β· NewsData Β· Currents Β· HN Β· GDELT

  1. GDELT 4h Nigel Farage condemned for exploiting murder of Henry Nowak
  2. GDELT 4h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide whether they win Congress
  3. GDELT 5h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide
  4. GDELT 5h Nigel Farage condemned for exploiting murder of Henry Nowak
  5. GDELT 5h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide whether they win Congress
  6. Fox News 5h Sharpton accuses Trump of trying to bring America back to racist era
  7. GDELT 5h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide
  8. GDELT 5h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide
  9. GDELT 5h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide whether they win Congress
  10. GDELT 6h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide
  11. GDELT 7h Republicans won the redistricting battle . Now voters will decide
  12. HackerNews 10h Shopify Is Down

πŸ’Ž Smart-Money Feed β€” markets whales just entered (last 4h, fresh wallets in bold)

  1. MANIFOLD αΉ€3,695 1 whales xjp: YES

πŸš€ Top-10 Movers

  1. POLY ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Β· ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka 52% β–Ό 16% 1h-36.5pp 24h-30.5pp
  2. POLY 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory Β· Chong Won-oh <3% 45% β–Ό 10% 1h-35.5pp 24h-7.5pp
  3. POLY NBA Playoffs: Finals MVP Β· Victor Wembanyama 30% β–² 62% 1h+31.6pp 24h+57.6pp
  4. POLY Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...? Β· June 7 18% β–² 32% 1h+15.0pp 24h+15.0pp
  5. POLY Bitcoin above ___ on June 6? Β· 64,000 64% β–² 69% 1h+4.7pp 24h-9.0pp
  6. POLY LA Mayoral Election: Who will advance to the 2nd round? Β· Bass & Pratt 48% β–Ό 43% 1h-4.5pp 24h-33.5pp
  7. POLY Who will advance from the California Governor primary? Β· Steve Hilton 80% β–Ό 78% 1h-2.5pp 24h-13.9pp
  8. POLY California Governor Primary Election: First Place Β· Steve Hilton 11% β–Ό 9% 1h-2.3pp 24h+0.3pp
  9. POLY San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Β· San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers 42% β–² 44% 1h+2.0pp 24h+2.0pp
  10. POLY Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Β· Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? 36% β–Ό 34% 1h-2.0pp 24h-3.0pp
Computed from snapshot diffs Β· β‰₯$50k 24h vol Β· β‰₯1pp 1h move filter

⚠ Anomalies β€” pre-resolution irregularities

  1. KALSHI How much will the US acquire Greenland for? vol +238% score 40
  2. POLY Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi vol +3158%ends in 155hprice -100% score 90
  3. KALSHI Will President Trump be impeached during his term? vol +1416% score 40
  4. POLY Bitcoin above ___ on June 4? vol +2350%ends in 18hprice -96% score 90
  5. KALSHI Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? vol +2983% score 40
  6. POLY New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners vol +4066%ends in 165hprice +135% score 90
  7. KALSHI What sector will Anthropic be assigned to in the S&P 500? vol +251% score 40
  8. POLY Elon Musk # tweets June 2 - June 9, 2026? vol +173%ends in 138hprice -57% score 84

πŸ’§ Most Liquid USD Markets β€” by orderbook depth Β· 3,096s old

  1. POLY 1. $333.2M Australia 0Β’ World Cup Winner
  2. POLY 2. $62.0M Chelsea Clinton 1Β’ Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
  3. POLY 3. $43.4M Byron Donalds 1Β’ Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
  4. POLY 4. $35.7M Stephen Smith 1Β’ Presidential Election Winner 2028
  5. POLY 5. $13.3M Oliver Bearman 0Β’ F1 Drivers' Champion
  6. POLY 6. $11.2M May 31, 2026 0Β’ MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
  7. POLY 7. $9.5M Knicks vs. Spurs 36Β’ Knicks vs. Spurs
  8. POLY 8. $8.9M Geraldo Alckmin 0Β’ Brazil Presidential Election
  9. POLY 9. $8.2M Olivier Faure 1Β’ Next French Presidential Election
  10. POLY 10. $6.4M Tom Steyer 14Β’ California Governor Election Winner
  11. POLY 11. $5.6M Oh Se-hoon 97Β’ 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
  12. POLY 12. $4.8M 50+ bps decrease 0Β’ Fed Decision in June?
  13. POLY 13. $4.4M Jorge Nieto 0Β’ Peru Presidential Election Winner
  14. POLY 14. $4.0M New York Jets 1Β’ NFL Champion 2027
  15. POLY 15. $3.5M Mauricio CΓ‘rdenas 0Β’ Colombia Presidential Election

⏰ Resolving Soon Next 7 days · liquidity-sorted

  1. <7d Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros 5650Β’
  2. <7d Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals O/U 8.5 4050Β’
  3. <7d PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Winner Jake Knapp 35Β’
  4. <7d Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs 4550Β’
  5. <24h Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 5550Β’
  6. <7d San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers 4250Β’
  7. <7d Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar 5Β’
  8. <7d Armenia Parliamentary Election Winner Armenian National Congress 5Β’
  9. <7d 2026 Men's French Open Winner
  10. <24h Bitcoin price on June 4? <64,000 4805Β’
  11. <7d Bitcoin above ___ on June 5? 64,000 5465Β’
  12. <7d PGA Tour: the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Top 20 Jake Knapp 35Β’
  13. <24h Ethereum above ___ on June 4? 1,700 9670Β’
  14. <7d Bitcoin above ___ on June 6? 64,000 5625Β’
  15. <7d Ethereum above ___ on June 5? 1,700 8885Β’

πŸ” Cross-Venue Same event, multiple platforms

  1. Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? 2 venues 1915bps
  2. Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? 2 venues 1338bps
  3. Which party will win the next UK general election? 2 venues 1296bps
  4. 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) 2 venues 1054bps
  5. 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) 2 venues 1034bps
  6. 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? 2 venues 940bps
  7. 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) 2 venues 846bps
  8. 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? 2 venues 712bps
  9. 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? 2 venues 462bps
  10. 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? 2 venues 288bps
  11. Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? 2 venues 188bps

πŸ“° Catalyst-Linked News-matched Β· 6h window

  1. No news-linked events in the last 6 hours.

πŸ— sx.bet Makers Top liquidity providers Β· L3 feed

  1. No sx.bet maker data yet β€” the L3 wallet index warms on prod.

πŸ“Š Biggest 24h Movers β€” top 7 each direction

β–² Hottest Risers

  1. BETFAIR Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Kemi Badenoch? +0.0%
  2. KALSHI Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? +499.2%
  3. MYRIAD BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? +-0.1%
  4. POLY Netherlands vs. Algeria +1805.0%
  5. BETFAIR Who will be the next permanent leader of the Liberal Democrats, after Ed Davey? +0.0%
  6. KALSHI 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) +435.3%
  7. MYRIAD BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K? +-8.9%

❄ Coldest (biggest 24h drops)

  1. KALSHI Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends? -98.4%
  2. MYRIAD Who IPOs first? -90.3%
  3. POLY Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner? -76.7%
  4. KALSHI Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? -90.4%
  5. MYRIAD Who IPOs first? -84.8%
  6. POLY Next Prime Minister of Denmark? -74.6%
  7. KALSHI Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? -88.3%

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🌍 Top Real-World Events · via PredictHQ

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Either no high-rank events qualified in the current 30-day window, or PREDICTHQ_API_KEY isn't set in Space secrets yet. Once active, this slot lists the highest-impact upcoming concerts, sports, conferences, and festivals β€” context for prediction markets that bet on those events.
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